U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Mississippi's 1st District
John Trent Kelly win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Kelly by 18
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
John Trent Kelly
Raised $1.0M · $864K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Cliff Johnson
Raised $551K · $150K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.3 points to John Trent Kelly. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $36K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Cliff Johnson had raised $551KFEC filing
- Jun 30John Trent Kelly had raised $1.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.3 and R+5.8.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›