U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Mississippi's 3rd District
Michael Patrick Guest win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Guest by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Michael Patrick Guest
Raised $823K · $963K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Michael Alexis Chiaradio
Raised $155K · $23K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.7 points to Michael Patrick Guest. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Michael Alexis Chiaradio had raised $155KFEC filing
- Jun 30Michael Patrick Guest had raised $823KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.7 and R+6.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›