U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Missouri's 3rd District
Robert For Onder Jr. win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Onder by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Robert For Onder Jr.
Raised $950K · $471K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Bethany Mann
Raised $43K · $3K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.3 points to Robert For Onder Jr.. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $978K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 15Bethany Mann had raised $43KFEC filing
- Jul 15Robert For Onder Jr. had raised $950KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›