U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Missouri's 4th District
Mark Alford win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Alford by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Mark Alford
Raised $1.4M · $747K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Hartzell Gray
Raised $259K · $0 cash on hand · through Sep 4, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.7 points to Mark Alford. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $42K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Sep 4Hartzell Gray had raised $259KFEC filing
- Jul 15Mark Alford had raised $1.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.7 and R+6.2.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›