U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Missouri's 5th District
Emanuel Cleaver II win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Cleaver by 26
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Emanuel Cleaver II
Raised $1.3M · $1.1M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Taylor Burks
Raised $1.2M · $719K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Emanuel Cleaver II. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $332K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Taylor Burks had raised $1.2MFEC filing
- Jul 15Emanuel Cleaver II had raised $1.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+13.9 and D+38.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›