U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Missouri's 8th District
Jason T Smith win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Smith by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jason T Smith
Raised $5.3M · $5.0M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Frank A Barnitz
Raised $83K · $20K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Jason T Smith. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $76K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 15Frank A Barnitz had raised $83KFEC filing
- Jul 15Jason T Smith had raised $5.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›