U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Montana's 1st District
Samuel Kelley Forstag win chance
54%
Typical margin: Forstag by 1
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Samuel Kelley Forstag
Raised $1.4M · $550K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Aaron Flint
Raised $1.3M · $502K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $1.3M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Aaron Flint had raised $1.3MFEC filing
- Jun 30Samuel Kelley Forstag had raised $1.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+11.4 and D+13.0.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›