U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Montana's 2nd District
Troy Downing win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Downing by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Troy Downing
Raised $2.1M · $650K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Brian James Miller
Raised $19K · $3K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Troy Downing. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $311K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Brian James Miller had raised $19KFEC filing
- Jun 30Troy Downing had raised $2.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›