U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Nevada's 1st District
Dina Titus win chance
94%
Typical margin: Titus by 11.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Dina Titus
Raised $1.5M · $1.3M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Carrie Buck
Raised $1.9M · $654K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Carrie Buck. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $170K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Carrie Buck had raised $1.9MFEC filing
- Jun 30Dina Titus had raised $1.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+0.6 and D+23.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›