U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
New Hampshire's 2nd District
Maggie Goodlander win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Goodlander by 26.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Maggie Goodlander
Raised $4.2M · $2.7M cash on hand · through Aug 19, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Lily Tang Williams
Raised $1.2M · $646K cash on hand · through Aug 19, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.5 points to Maggie Goodlander. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $215K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Aug 19Lily Tang Williams had raised $1.2MFEC filing
- Aug 19Maggie Goodlander had raised $4.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.5 and D+38.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›