U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
New Jersey's 3rd District
Herb Conaway win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Conaway by 27
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Herb Conaway
Raised $935K · $439K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Michael Patrick McGuire
Raised $79K · $807.29 cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.1 points to Herb Conaway. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $76K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Michael Patrick McGuire had raised $79KFEC filing
- Jun 30Herb Conaway had raised $935KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.8 and D+39.2.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›