U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
New Jersey's 4th District
Christopher H Smith win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Smith by 19
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Christopher H Smith
Raised $592K · $488K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Rachel Peace
Raised $34K · $5K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.2 points to Christopher H Smith. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $5K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Rachel Peace had raised $34KFEC filing
- Jun 30Christopher H Smith had raised $592KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.2 and R+6.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›