New Jersey's 12th District

Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.3 points to Adam Hamawy. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.

Other filers in this race raised $867K in total.

Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.

1. Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
2. Jun 30Gregg Mele had raised $79KFEC filing
3. Jun 30Adam Hamawy had raised $1.5MFEC filing

We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.

90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+13.5 and D+37.9.

No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.