U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
New Mexico's 1st District
Melanie Stansbury win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Stansbury by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Melanie Stansbury
Raised $1.4M · $417K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Ndidiamaka Okpareke
Raised $100K · $43K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.1 points to Melanie Stansbury. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $672.59 in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Ndidiamaka Okpareke had raised $100KFEC filing
- Jun 30Melanie Stansbury had raised $1.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.1 and D+39.6.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›