U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
New Mexico's 3rd District
Teresa Leger Fernandez win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Fernandez by 26.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Teresa Leger Fernandez
Raised $1.2M · $667K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Martin R Zamora
Raised $441K · $243K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.5 points to Teresa Leger Fernandez. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Martin R Zamora had raised $441KFEC filing
- Jun 30Teresa Leger Fernandez had raised $1.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.4 and D+38.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›