U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
New York's 3rd District
Thomas Suozzi win chance
91%
Typical margin: Suozzi by 10
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Thomas Suozzi
Raised $5.5M · $5.7M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Mike Lipetri
Raised $1.7M · $723K cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.5 points to Thomas Suozzi. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $768K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Mike Lipetri had raised $1.7MFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Thomas Suozzi had raised $5.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+2.1 and D+22.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›