U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
New York's 4th District
Laura Gillen win chance
88%
Typical margin: Gillen by 9
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Laura Gillen
Raised $5.1M · $3.8M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jeanine Driscoll
Raised $265K · $226K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.3 points to Laura Gillen. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $171K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Jeanine Driscoll had raised $265KFEC filing
- Jun 30Laura Gillen had raised $5.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+3.4 and D+21.0.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›