U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
New York's 12th District
George Conway win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Conway by 25.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
George Conway
Raised $7.1M · $662K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Caroline Shinkle
Raised $155K · $84K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to George Conway. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $4.1M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Caroline Shinkle had raised $155KFEC filing
- Jun 30George Conway had raised $7.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+13.5 and D+37.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›