U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
New York's 17th District
Peter Chatzky win chance
63%
Typical margin: Chatzky by 2.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Michael Vincent Lawler
Raised $8.2M · $4.8M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Peter Chatzky
Raised $11.7M · $789.36 cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.2 points to Peter Chatzky. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $4.3M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Jun 30Peter Chatzky had raised $11.7MFEC filing
- Jun 30Michael Vincent Lawler had raised $8.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+9.7 and D+14.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›