U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
New York's 19th District
Josh Riley win chance
95%
Typical margin: Riley by 12.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Josh Riley
Raised $4.8M · $3.2M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Peter Karl Oberacker Jr.
Raised $1.2M · $393K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.6 points to Josh Riley. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Peter Karl Oberacker Jr. had raised $1.2MFEC filing
- Jun 30Josh Riley had raised $4.8MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+0.1 and D+24.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›