U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
New York's 20th District
Paul David Tonko win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Tonko by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Paul David Tonko
Raised $958K · $404K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Ralph Ambrosio
Raised $29K · $8K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Paul David Tonko. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Ralph Ambrosio had raised $29KFEC filing
- Jun 30Paul David Tonko had raised $958KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›