U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
North Carolina's 1st District
Don Davis win chance
63%
Typical margin: Davis by 2.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Don Davis
Raised $4.3M · $3.6M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Laurie Buckhout
Raised $3.8M · $1.8M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Don Davis. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $3.5M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Laurie Buckhout had raised $3.8MFEC filing
- Jun 30Don Davis had raised $4.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+9.8 and D+14.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›