U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
North Carolina's 3rd District
Gregory Francis Murphy win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Murphy by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Gregory Francis Murphy
Raised $2.4M · $2.7M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Allison Jaslow
Raised $274K · $0 cash on hand · through Mar 31, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.9 points to Gregory Francis Murphy. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $223K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Gregory Francis Murphy had raised $2.4MFEC filing
- Mar 31Allison Jaslow had raised $274KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.7 and R+6.2.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›