U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
North Carolina's 4th District
Nida Allam win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Allam by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Valerie Foushee
Raised $912K · $48K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Nida Allam
Raised $1.1M · $0 cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Mahesh Ganorkar
Raised $12K · $17K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Nida Allam. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Nida Allam had raised $1.1MFEC filing
- Jun 30Mahesh Ganorkar had raised $12KFEC filing
- Jun 30Valerie Foushee had raised $912KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›