U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
North Carolina's 6th District
Addison McDowell win chance
>99%
Typical margin: McDowell by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Addison McDowell
Raised $1.2M · $382K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Cyril Jefferson
Raised $200K · $14K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.8 points to Addison McDowell. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $31K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Cyril Jefferson had raised $200KFEC filing
- Jun 30Addison McDowell had raised $1.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.7 and R+6.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›