North Carolina's 8th District

Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.5 points to Mark E Harris. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.

Other filers in this race raised $40K in total.

Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.

1. Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
2. Jun 30Jesse Oppenheim had raised $314KFEC filing
3. Jun 30Mark E Harris had raised $1.0MFEC filing

We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.

90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+28.5 and R+4.0.

No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.