U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
North Carolina's 11th District
Jamie Ager win chance
78%
Typical margin: Ager by 5.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jamie Ager
Raised $3.1M · $2.2M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Adam R. Smith
Raised $67K · $2K cash on hand · through Mar 31, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Jamie Ager. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $217K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Jun 30Jamie Ager had raised $3.1MFEC filing
- Mar 31Adam R. Smith had raised $67KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+6.5 and D+17.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›