U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Ohio's 1st District
Greg Landsman win chance
91%
Typical margin: Landsman by 10
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Greg Landsman
Raised $4.6M · $3.6M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Eric Conroy
Raised $1.5M · $474K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.5 points to Greg Landsman. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $849K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Eric Conroy had raised $1.5MFEC filing
- Jun 30Greg Landsman had raised $4.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+2.2 and D+22.2.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›