U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Ohio's 8th District
Warren Davidson win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Davidson by 19
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Warren Davidson
Raised $661K · $530K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Madaris Grant
Raised $31K · $420 cash on hand · through Aug 3, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.3 points to Warren Davidson. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Aug 3Madaris Grant had raised $31KFEC filing
- Jun 30Warren Davidson had raised $661KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.3 and R+6.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›