U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Ohio's 12th District
William Troy Balderson win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Balderson by 19
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
William Troy Balderson
Raised $1.7M · $2.0M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jerrad Shane Christian
Raised $84K · $19K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.3 points to William Troy Balderson. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $178.69 in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Jerrad Shane Christian had raised $84KFEC filing
- Jun 30William Troy Balderson had raised $1.7MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.3 and R+6.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›