U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Ohio's 13th District
Emilia Sykes win chance
96%
Typical margin: Sykes by 13
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Emilia Sykes
Raised $3.1M · $1.9M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Carey Coleman
Raised $127K · $78K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.4 points to Emilia Sykes. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $51K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Carey Coleman had raised $127KFEC filing
- Jun 30Emilia Sykes had raised $3.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+0.7 and D+25.2.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›