U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Oklahoma's 1st District
Mark Tedford win chance
99%
Typical margin: Tedford by 17
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Mark Tedford
Raised $1.8M · $174K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
John Thomas Croisant
Raised $142K · $37K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.1 points to Mark Tedford. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.7M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30John Thomas Croisant had raised $142KFEC filing
- Jun 30Mark Tedford had raised $1.8MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.4 and R+4.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›