U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Oklahoma's 3rd District
Frank D. Lucas win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Lucas by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Frank D. Lucas
Raised $907K · $533K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jules Roberson
Raised $945 · $510.82 cash on hand · through Dec 31, 2025 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Frank D. Lucas. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Frank D. Lucas had raised $907KFEC filing
- Dec 31Jules Roberson had raised $945FEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›