U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Oklahoma's 5th District
Stephanie Bice win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Bice by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Stephanie Bice
Raised $1.9M · $2.0M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jena Nelson
Raised $449K · $17K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.6 points to Stephanie Bice. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $115K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Jena Nelson had raised $449KFEC filing
- Jun 30Stephanie Bice had raised $1.9MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.6 and R+6.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›