U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Pennsylvania's 3rd District
Christopher M. Rabb win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Rabb by 25.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Christopher M. Rabb
Raised $1.3M · $21K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Alexander Schnell
Raised $80.64 · $22 cash on hand · through Jul 13, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Christopher M. Rabb. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.1M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 13Alexander Schnell had raised $80.64FEC filing
- Jun 30Christopher M. Rabb had raised $1.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+13.5 and D+37.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›