U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Pennsylvania's 4th District
Madeleine Dean win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Dean by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Madeleine Dean
Raised $1.4M · $1.2M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Aurora Stuski
Raised $9K · $4K cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Madeleine Dean. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Aurora Stuski had raised $9KFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Madeleine Dean had raised $1.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›