U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Pennsylvania's 5th District
Mary Gay Scanlon win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Scanlon by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Mary Gay Scanlon
Raised $991K · $449K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Nicholas Waln Morris Manganaro
Raised $9K · $6K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Mary Gay Scanlon. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $4K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Nicholas Waln Morris Manganaro had raised $9KFEC filing
- Jun 30Mary Gay Scanlon had raised $991KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›