U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Pennsylvania's 16th District
George J Kelly Jr. win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Kelly by 19
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
George J Kelly Jr.
Raised $1.2M · $1.3M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Justin Wagner
Raised $67K · $38K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.2 points to George J Kelly Jr.. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Justin Wagner had raised $67KFEC filing
- Jun 30George J Kelly Jr. had raised $1.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.3 and R+6.8.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›