U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Rhode Island's 1st District
Gabriel F Amo win chance
85%
Typical margin: Amo by 7.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Gabriel F Amo
Raised $1.7M · $1.9M cash on hand · through Aug 20, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Kellie Eleanor Keenan
Raised $13K · $2K cash on hand · through Aug 20, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Gabriel F Amo. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Aug 20Kellie Eleanor Keenan had raised $13KFEC filing
- Aug 20Gabriel F Amo had raised $1.7MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+4.5 and D+19.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›