U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Rhode Island's 2nd District
Seth Magaziner win chance
79%
Typical margin: Magaziner by 6
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Seth Magaziner
Raised $1.4M · $1.5M cash on hand · through Aug 20, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Victor G. Mellor
Raised $3.0M · $277K cash on hand · through Aug 20, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.3 points to Victor G. Mellor. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $225K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Aug 20Victor G. Mellor had raised $3.0MFEC filing
- Aug 20Seth Magaziner had raised $1.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+6.4 and D+18.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›