U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
South Carolina's 1st District
Sam McCown win chance
67%
Typical margin: McCown by 3.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Nancy Mace
Raised $453K · $77K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Nancy Lacore
Raised $2.3M · $412K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Sam McCown
Raised $1.6M · $28K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $1.6M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Sam McCown had raised $1.6MFEC filing
- Jun 30Nancy Lacore had raised $2.3MFEC filing
- Jun 30Nancy Mace had raised $453KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+15.5 and D+8.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›