U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
South Carolina's 3rd District
Sheri Biggs win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Biggs by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Sheri Biggs
Raised $505K · $219K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Eunice Lehmacher
Raised $93K · $50K cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.7 points to Sheri Biggs. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Eunice Lehmacher had raised $93KFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Sheri Biggs had raised $505KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.8 and R+6.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›