U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
South Carolina's 5th District
Wes Climer win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Climer by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Ralph W. Norman Jr.
Raised $101K · $90K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Wes Climer
Raised $884K · $600K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Mallory Dittmer
Raised $140K · $75K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.8 points to Wes Climer. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $73K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Mallory Dittmer had raised $140KFEC filing
- Jun 30Wes Climer had raised $884KFEC filing
- Jun 30Ralph W. Norman Jr. had raised $101KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.8 and R+6.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›