U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
South Carolina's 7th District
Russell Fry win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Fry by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Russell Fry
Raised $1.7M · $1.0M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
John Gregory Vincent
Raised $297K · $62K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.8 points to Russell Fry. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30John Gregory Vincent had raised $297KFEC filing
- Jun 30Russell Fry had raised $1.7MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.8 and R+6.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›