U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
South Dakota at-large
Marty Jackley win chance
99%
Typical margin: Jackley by 16.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Marty Jackley
Raised $1.4M · $1.1M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Nicole Gronli
Raised $262K · $111K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.7 points to Marty Jackley. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $286K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Nicole Gronli had raised $262KFEC filing
- Jun 30Marty Jackley had raised $1.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+28.8 and R+4.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›