U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Tennessee's 1st District
Diana Harshbarger win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Harshbarger by 19
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Diana Harshbarger
Raised $1.3M · $2.0M cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Kristi Burke
Raised $102K · $14K cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.1 points to Diana Harshbarger. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 17Kristi Burke had raised $102KFEC filing
- Jul 17Diana Harshbarger had raised $1.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.1 and R+6.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›