U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Tennessee's 2nd District
Tim Burchett win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Burchett by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Tim Burchett
Raised $2.4M · $967K cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Michaela Barnett
Raised $398K · $56K cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.8 points to Tim Burchett. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 17Michaela Barnett had raised $398KFEC filing
- Jul 17Tim Burchett had raised $2.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.8 and R+6.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›