U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Tennessee's 4th District
Scott Desjarlais win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Desjarlais by 17.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Scott Desjarlais
Raised $537K · $495K cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Mike Cortese
Raised $742K · $122K cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Mike Cortese. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $106K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 17Mike Cortese had raised $742KFEC filing
- Jul 17Scott Desjarlais had raised $537KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.9 and R+5.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›