U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Tennessee's 5th District
Charlie Hatcher win chance
98%
Typical margin: Hatcher by 15
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Chaz Molder
Raised $2.6M · $1.5M cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Charlie Hatcher
Raised $720K · $105K cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.6 points to Chaz Molder. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $44K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 17Charlie Hatcher had raised $720KFEC filing
- Jul 17Chaz Molder had raised $2.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+27.4 and R+3.0.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›