U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Tennessee's 6th District
Johnny Garrett win chance
99%
Typical margin: Garrett by 17.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Johnny Garrett
Raised $2.4M · $288K cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Chaney Mosley
Raised $87K · $26K cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.4 points to Johnny Garrett. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.6M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 17Chaney Mosley had raised $87KFEC filing
- Jul 17Johnny Garrett had raised $2.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.5 and R+5.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›